IN ONE OF HIS LAST PRE-SABBATICAL POSTS, JACK SUGGESTED the Multnomah County Commissioners' decision to give marriage licenses to gay folks looking to wed might, by driving high conservative voter turnout (in favor of the "Defense of Marriage" state constitutional amendment), also swing Oregon, and possibly the nation, to the Rs in November. That "butterfly effect" is an ugly possiblity, but seems farfetched. I tend to agree with b!X, who argues convincingly (that is, using a flowchart) that Basic Rights Oregon was going to force a showdown on this issue no matter what, which in turn would put us precisely where we are now--looking down the barrel of a ballot measure that will carry every OCA vote plus those of some Beaverton soccer moms too.

UPDATE: I posted too fast; Jack was merely echoing a prediction made by Worldwide Pablo.
- posted by thegusdad @ 7/07/2004 03:10:00 PM